On the night of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated military campaign targeting Iran’s leadership, nuclear infrastructure, and armed forces. Two weeks of war and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has lost roughly 2,440 points.
Here is a day-by-day account of what that war has done to Wall Street.
Feb 28–Mar 2: Denial Phase – Dow Dips Lightly to 48,904
The first trading session after the strikes opened in “buy the dip” mode. The Dow fell nearly 600 points intraday but clawed back to close down just 73 points, or 0.15%, at 48,904.78. Defense stocks popped: Lockheed Martin gained 6%, Northrop Grumman rose 5%, and drone maker AeroVironment jumped more than 10%. Investors snapped up Nvidia and Microsoft, betting on a short, contained war. Oil surged to eight-month highs, but Wall Street mostly shrugged.
“Our take is markets overall are holding up OK, all things considered,” Evercore ISI vice chairman Krishna Guha wrote in a note, CNN reported. That assessment would not survive the week.
Mar 3: Dow Plunges 1,200 Intraday on Hormuz Shutdown
Iran’s retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which 20% of the world’s oil is carried, broke the calm. The Dow Jones plunged more than 1,200 points at its session low before Trump’s Truth Social pledge to ensure the “FREE FLOW of ENERGY” trimmed losses.
The index closed down 403.51 points, or 0.83%, at 48,501.27. The S&P 500 slipped 0.94%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.02%. Brent crude hit $83.83. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) topped $77.
The energy shock was no longer theoretical.
Mar 5: Goldman, Caterpillar Sink Dow 785 Points; Oil’s Biggest Jump Since 2020
Thursday’s session was the week’s ugliest. The Dow closed lower by 785 points, or 1.61%, after briefly falling more than 1,100 points intraday. Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, the two heaviest companies in the Dow, each fell by over 3.5%. WTI crude surged 8.5% to just over $81 per barrel.
“Iran’s strategy of sowing economic chaos in the Gulf is working as tankers come under attack and Hormuz stays shuttered, pushing Brent up toward $100,” Wall Street analyst Adam Crisafulli said in a research note, CBS News reported.
Mar 6: Dow Down 3% Weekly; WTI’s Historic Surge
Friday sealed a historic week of pain. The Dow fell 453 points, or 0.95%, finishing the week lower by 3%, its worst weekly performance since April. US crude surged 12.2% on the day to $90.90 per barrel.
The 36% surge in US oil was the biggest weekly increase since WTI futures started trading in 1983. The S&P 500 fell 2% on the week, its worst since October.
“Investors have gone from complacency to the edge of panic. And we’re about to have a panic moment,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNN.
JP Morgan Wealth Management‘s head of investment strategy Elyse Ausenbaugh summed it up as a “tricky, stagflationary mix of risks.” US Q4 2025 GDP had already printed at a feeble 0.7% annualized growth rate.
Mar 9: Trump: “Pretty Much Over” – Dow Rebounds 239 Points, Doubt Returns
Monday offered short-lived relief.
The Dow added 239.25 points, or 0.5%, ending at 47,740.80 after Trump told a CBS News reporter that “the war is very complete, pretty much.” The Nasdaq jumped 1.38%.
But Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the assassinated leader’s son, elevated to the role on March 8, had other plans.
Mar 11–12: IEA’s Record Release Flops – Dow Cracks Below 47,000
On March 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history, 400 million barrels. It did not cool prices. The Dow fell 289.24 points, or 0.61%, to close at 47,417.27. Brent crude still gained about 4.8% to end the session at $91.98 per barrel.
Thursday, March 12 was worse. Iran’s new supreme leader declared that the Strait of Hormuz closure should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42 points, or 1.56%, to close at 46,677.85, marking a new 2026 low. WTI futures rose 9.72% to settle at $95.73 per barrel. Brent closed above $100 for the first time since 2022.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly admitted the US Navy was “not ready” to escort tankers through the Strait.
Mar 13: New 2026 Low – Third Straight Losing Week at 46,558
The Dow shed 119.38 points, or 0.26%, and settled at 46,558.47. The S&P 500 posted a 1.6% loss on the week and notched its first three-week losing streak in about a year. The 30-stock Dow slid about 2% week-to-date. WTI closed at $98.71. Brent at $103.14. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.28%, up from 3.97% pre-war levels, as bond traders priced in oil-driven inflation, Ad Hoc News reported. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 55.5.
From the pre-war DJIA close near 49,000, the index has surrendered roughly 2,440 points, approximately 5%, across just ten trading sessions.
“The stock market is becoming increasingly vulnerable to turmoil in the Middle East, making the path of least resistance lower,” chief market technician at Piper Sandler Craig Johnson said in a note, CNN reported.
Market Snapshot: Pre-War vs. March 13 Close
| Metric | Before War | Current | Change |
| Dow Jones | ~49,000 | 46,558 | -2,440 pts |
| Brent Crude | ~$75 | $103+ | +37% |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | ~$72 | $98+ | +36% |
| 10-Year Yield | 3.97% | 4.28% | Rising inflation fears |
Sources: CNN, CBS News, Ad Hoc News
What If Oil Spikes to $120?
The market has not fully priced this in.
Iran has threatened $200 crude. Qatar’s energy minister has warned that continued conflict could force all Gulf producers to halt exports entirely, a scenario one Wirtschaftswoche analysis described as a “catastrophe” for smaller Gulf states. The IEA’s record reserve release has failed to move the needle.
The Federal Reserve meets this week. With one-year inflation expectations already at 3.4% and oil still climbing, rate cuts seem dead.
Market strategist Michael Antonelli at Baird put it plainly: “Everything’s just trading with crude oil at this point,” per Ad Hoc News.
Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Iran’s new leadership signals it is done, the DJIA will keep following the oil price, straight down.
Author: Richardson Chinonyerem
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
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