Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, and prediction market traders now give the crypto industry’s main legislative priority, the CLARITY Act, a 6% chance of becoming law before January 1, 2027.
Kalshi Priced a 75% Democratic Sweep Before Polls Opened
The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats late Tuesday after Josh Turek won in Iowa, then called the House early Wednesday to complete the sweep. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats, including Maine, where Troy Jackson defeated five-term Sen. Susan Collins.
The outcome matched what traders had priced in. At 7:17 a.m. ET on election day, Kalshi’s Congress balance of power market put a Democratic sweep at 75%, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 20% and a Republican sweep at 6%. Kalshi’s midterms page gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 76% chance of winning the Senate.
CLARITY Act Odds Sit at 6% for 2026 and 26% Before 2028
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, passed the House in July 2025 but failed a Senate cloture vote 49 to 50 on September 15, 2026, falling short of the 60 needed to advance. Any bill that does not pass before the current Congress ends on January 3, 2027, has to be reintroduced in the next one.
On Kalshi’s market on whether the CLARITY Act or another qualifying crypto market structure bill becomes law, the contract for passage before January 1, 2027 traded at 6% on Wednesday, with $10.2 million traded across the market. Traders priced a 15% chance of passage before July 1, 2027, 19% before October 1, 2027, and 26% before January 1, 2028.
The result came after heavy industry spending. Reuters reported that the sector has spent more than $300 million backing crypto-friendly Democrats and Republicans in roughly equal measure across the current and previous election cycles, aiming to pass legislation that would put US crypto companies on firmer legal footing.
Bitcoin Hit a One-Month Low Before Recovering to $77,919
Bitcoin dipped as the results came in, then rose 1.8% to $77,919.70 by 1:48 a.m. ET on Wednesday after recovering from an over one-month low set in the prior session. A Democratic Congress is likely to bring more regulatory hurdles for crypto, since the pro-crypto legislation advanced in the first two years of President Donald Trump’s term was largely Republican-backed.
Even after the rebound, bitcoin remains about 41% below its October 2025 record above $122,000. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told Reuters that shifts in the US political landscape could slow progress on crypto market structure legislation and on the institutional framework the industry has been waiting for.
Democrats Take Committee Control in January
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is now positioned to become speaker when the new Congress convenes in January. Democrats have also signaled investigations into Trump’s personal business dealings, and Forbes estimates his net worth has grown by at least $2.7 billion during his second term, driven largely by his cryptocurrency ventures.
Until then, the CLARITY Act’s only path runs through the lame-duck session. The 6% price on Kalshi shows how few traders expect it to clear the Senate before January 3.
Author: Ayanfe Fakunle
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
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