- Bitcoin now accounts for more than half of cryptocurrency markets’ nearly $2.33 trillion capitalization*
- Bitcoin’s price has dropped by nearly half since October 2025
- Price volatility for bitcoin is on a long-term downward trend – though it remains higher than that of traditional assets
NEW YORK (March 5, 2026) – S&P Global today published new research examining how bitcoin has evolved from a niche asset to one with meaningful linkages to traditional financial markets.
‘Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ provides a detailed analysis of bitcoin’s market behavior, price patterns, and market trends.
Key findings from the research reveal:
- Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, though they remain larger than those of traditional assets. A growing market for bitcoin futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased bitcoin adoption, which in turn increased liquidity.
- Bitcoin Hedge Insights: The analysis indicates bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.
- Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.
- New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.
Cristina Polizu, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings, said: “Our research indicates that bitcoin’s volatility has trended down over the long term, and that its behavior is increasingly linked to broader market conditions. At the same time, the added complexity of new bitcoin-related products can introduce risks beyond the asset itself, including custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.”
Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ is part of the Look Forward research series, special reports that offer a deep dive into the most important themes, trends, and topics that are transforming the global economy.
S&P Global: Building on Growth in Digital Assets
S&P Global has continued driving growth in Digital Assets markets, underpinned by its leading analyst-driven research and opinions:
- May 2021: S&P Dow Jones Indices launches its first cryptocurrency index series, “S&P Digital Market Indices“, including Bitcoin and Ethereum indices.
- May 2022: Establishment of dedicated DeFi group under S&P Global’s Chief DeFi Officer, Chuck Mounts.
- Jan 2023: Launch of S&P Cryptocurrency DeFi Index, a DeFi-focused crypto benchmark tracking the performance of selected DeFi tokens / protocols.
- Dec 2023: Launch of S&P Global Ratings’ Stablecoin Stability Assessments framework covering leading stablecoins.
- Feb-Sept 2025: S&P Global Ratings assigns its first ratings to tokenized treasury funds Janus Henderson’s Anemoy Tokenized Treasury Fund, the Delta Wellington Ultra Short Treasury On-Chain Fund, and OpenEden Group Ltd.’s Tokenized TBILL Fund.
- July 2025: S&P DJI collaborates with Centrifuge to enter the fund tokenization space by licensing the S&P 500 Index.
- Aug 2025: First-ever credit rating of a DeFi protocol (Sky Protocol, B- Stable Outlook).
- Sept 2025: Centrifuge launches SPXA, the first licensed S&P 500® index fund token.
- Oct 2025: S&P DJI announces plans to launch S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, an innovative crypto ecosystem index that combines cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities.
- Oct 2025: S&P Global Ratings brings its SSAs On-Chain via Chainlink.
- Feb 2026: S&P Global Ratings publishes its first-ever rating of a structured finance transaction backed by Bitcoin.
See Also:
How Strong Will BTC Be in 2026?
How Bitcoin Miners Became the Backbone of the AI Compute Boom | Disruption Banking
