New Permutable analysis finds energy accounts for 42.1% of the UK inflation signal, almost identical to September 2022, while food and services remain comparatively weak.
LONDON, 14 September 2026 – Britain’s latest energy shock has reached almost the same concentration in the inflation signal as the shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but has so far produced a very different pattern across the wider economy, according to new analysis from Permutable.
Research using Permutable’s Global Macro Sentiment Indices (GMSI) shows energy accounted for 42.1% of the absolute UK inflation signal on 9 September 2026, compared with 42.7% on the same date in 2022.
The two episodes produce a similar headline reading, but for very different reasons.
In 2022, the energy shock spread rapidly into the wider inflation basket, particularly food. In 2026, the pressure has remained far more concentrated.
During Q3 2022, Permutable’s directional inflation data recorded an energy score of 2,947, alongside 713 for food and 213 for services. In Q2 2026, energy recorded 1,201, while food stood at 134 and services at 190.
A high concentration reading does not, by itself, distinguish a narrow energy shock from a broader inflation episode.
Second-round effects remain limited
The key question is whether higher energy costs begin feeding into food, goods, wages, services and inflation expectations.
So far, Permutable’s data shows little evidence of sustained second-round effects. As of 9 September, the trailing 90-day food signal stood at -26, placing it in the 14th percentile of its historical range. Services stood at +49, in the 34th percentile.
Official and industry data point in a similar direction. UK food and drink inflation slowed to 1.3% in July, while the Food and Drink Federation cut its forecast for December food inflation from almost 10% earlier in the year to 3.9%.
Some pass-through may still be delayed. Food manufacturers have reported absorbing higher energy, packaging and logistics costs in margins.
Jack Watson, Market Analyst at Permutable, said:
“At first glance, the current episode looks remarkably similar to 2022. Energy has reached almost exactly the same share of the UK inflation signal. In 2022, the pressure spread quickly into food and the wider basket. So far in 2026, that transmission has been much more limited. The thing to watch now is not simply another move in oil. It is whether food and services turn decisively higher and stay there.”
Headline pressure is rising again
Permutable’s 30-day UK headline inflation signal has returned to positive territory at +0.67 standard deviations, compared with a peak of +2.13 in April.
The recent rise is being driven primarily by renewed energy pressure. Food and services remain weak on the longer 90-day measure.
Permutable’s analysis shows how the source of inflation pressure shapes the Bank of England interest-rate outlook. Monetary policy cannot remove an oil or gas shock. The concern for the Bank is whether the initial price rise feeds through into broader inflation.
Gilts are telling a different story
The 10-year gilt yield stood at 5.18% on 9 September, up from 4.54% at the start of 2026, while Bank Rate remained at 3.75%.
Sterling, however, remains close to $1.35 and slightly higher on the year. That is notably different from September 2022, when gilt yields rose sharply while sterling fell towards $1.07.
The combination suggests long-term UK borrowing costs may reflect more than inflation and Bank of England expectations. Term premium, gilt supply and fiscal uncertainty may also be contributing.
A more concerning combination would be rising gilt yields alongside sustained sterling weakness, adding imported inflation to domestic energy pressure.
Why 2026 looks different
The 2022 shock followed an open-ended break in European energy supply. By contrast, the 2026 episode has so far operated on a shorter timeline. Geopolitical risk rose sharply in spring, with Brent near $110, before the 7 April ceasefire provided a clearer potential off-ramp.
On Permutable’s standardised UK measure, the energy signal exceeded four standard deviations for only three days, from 23 to 25 April.
Energy prices remain elevated and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but the flow of new inflationary information has cooled materially from its spring peak.
For investors and policymakers, the focus is therefore shifting from concentration to breadth: whether an energy-led inflation shock develops into a persistent economy-wide problem.
