LONDON, 11 August 2026 – Policy-outlook sentiment has moved in a more hawkish direction at 12 of 14 major central banks over the past year, despite wide differences in interest rates and domestic conditions, according to new data from Permutable.
Permutable’s Major Central Bank Sentiment Index scores directional policy-outlook sentiment over a trailing 30-day window from -100 to +100. The latest period covers the 30 days to 6 August 2026 and is compared with the equivalent window a year earlier.
Japan and Brazil sit at opposite ends of the current ranking, at +99.4 and -96.0. Yet only Russia and Brazil have moved in a more dovish direction over twelve months. The other twelve have shifted towards the hawkish end.
Sentiment has moved where rates have not
At the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, hawkish minorities lost the most recent policy vote. Over the same twelve-month comparison, sentiment moved towards those dissenting positions by 81.2 points at the Fed, 36.0 at the Bank of England and 21.2 at the Bank of Japan.
The Fed and Bank of England have each been on hold since December. The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, with three members favouring an immediate quarter-point increase. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July by six votes to three, with the minority favouring 4%.
Jack Watson, Market Analyst at Permutable, said: “Twelve of the fourteen central banks we monitor have a more hawkish sentiment reading than in the equivalent window a year ago. At the Fed that reading is 81 points higher and at the Bank of England 36 points higher. Neither has raised rates in that period. What sentiment is capturing is a change in the policy outlook that current rate settings do not show.”
Two central banks have already acted
Japan and the euro area are the only two in the monitor where a hawkish sentiment reading has already been followed by a rate increase.
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% in December and 1% in June, before holding on 31 July. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June, then held on 23 July. The ECB scores +49.3, up 74.6 points from the year-earlier window.
Watson said: “Japan and the euro area are further along the sequence, with hawkish sentiment established before rates moved. Elsewhere, sentiment has shifted without the same change in policy rates.”
Dovish readings can mask a hawkish shift
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand records the largest twelve-month move at +139.9, taking its current reading to +87.1 after raising the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July.
Australia remains dovish at -30.8 but has moved 136.8 points towards the hawkish end, the second-largest shift in the monitor. India shows a similar pattern at -51.6, with a twelve-month change of +55.4.
Closer to neutral, the Bank of England scores +10.6 and Turkey +10.4. Readings near zero can reflect an active policy split rather than an absence of pressure.
Brazil stands apart
Banco Central do Brasil scores -96.0 after cutting the Selic rate to 14% on 5 August. The Bank of Russia scores -44.4 after cutting its key rate to 14% while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 6% to 7%.
Brazil and Russia are the only two central banks whose policy-outlook sentiment has moved in a more dovish direction over twelve months.
Permutable’s analysis identifies energy prices, currencies, labour markets and domestic demand as the main forces likely to shape the next phase. A prolonged energy shock could be particularly influential for central banks in the middle of the distribution, including the UK, Canada and Australia.
Watson added: “We are not forecasting that twelve central banks are about to raise rates. The index is showing how the policy debate is moving. In several economies, that debate has changed much more than the headline rate suggests.”
