In 2024 bitcoin ETFs have been just one of the reasons that we have seen a huge jump in the value of bitcoin. There are more reasons too. Whether it’s the rising wave of enthusiasm when it comes to tokenization. The new trend towards tokenizing real world assets. Or the rise of more and more sophisticated blockchain solutions. Either way, we wanted to write a small story about how strong bitcoin will be in 2025 today. This story is the first DisruptionBanking feature of 2025.
Larry Fink at BlackRock is the first person we wanted to talk about today. It’s been a very interesting year for him. Just look at how he has started to compete with Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy on the topic of bitcoin. By March 2024 Fink already held more bitcoin than Saylor. Today, problems related to money laundering and moving money that have plagued bitcoin for years, no longer seem to bother Fink. They did till not long ago.
Another long-term protagonist of bitcoin is Warren Buffett, who believes that bitcoin will not end well. However, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s company, is an investor in several businesses whose price depends on how digital assets perform. Jamie Dimon has already become a believer. Warren Buffett is one of the last legends of Wall Street to embrace crypto. When he inevitably does, perhaps he will use his $300 billion+ cash horde to buy some bitcoin. The repercussions of that type of investment could be huge. If. And it’s a big ‘if’. There is enough bitcoin around to supply the growing demand.
Is There Enough Bitcoin in Circulation in the World Today?
One of the endearing attributes of bitcoin is how there is a finite supply of bitcoins. Today we are still several years away from the end of new bitcoins being issued. Indeed, as of late December 2024 there were approximately 19.9 million bitcoins in circulation. 94.5% of the total bitcoins that can ever be in circulation (i.e. 21 million).
2024 has officially come to a close for the Bitcoin network! Here are some network and on-chain stats to celebrate the year:
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) January 1, 2025
– Blocks Confirmed: 53,473
– Bitcoin Mined: 217,771.875 BTC
– Transactions Processed: 192,248,608
– Settled Payments: 290,563,489.27296500 BTC /… pic.twitter.com/JCsaMddRBI
According to market commentators, over 200,000 bitcoins were mined in 2024. Just enough to cover BlackRock’s basic needs up till March 2024. But what about the rest of the year and the other companies who issued bitcoin ETFs? According to Statista, as of the 10th of December BlackRock had increased its bitcoin holding to 521,164. Grayscale owns 212,708 bitcoins. Fidelity owns 198,036 bitcoins. Far more than the amount of bitcoin mined in 2024…
This phenomenon of less supply than demand is concerning. Particularly if you consider the growth in popularity of using bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Countries or states like Switzerland or Texas have a far larger cashpool to buy bitcoin than the Republic of El Salvador. Strategic reserves could easily take away 500,000 bitcoins from circulation once they rise in popularity.
Does the Rise in Demand mean that higher Returns are Likely?
Yes, there have always been whales out there buying up bitcoin. We all knew that Satoshi Nakamoto had a 1,000,000 bitcoin stash. But less of us know that the U.S. Government holds over 200,000 bitcoins.
The other problem is the number of unused wallets where bitcoin is being held. You may recall the story of the chap who lost millions of dollars of bitcoin when he accidentally threw them away.
James Howells, 39, accidentally put the hard drive with a bunch of #bitcoin in a black bin bag while having an office clear-out and his partner mistook it for a rubbish bag, so she took it down to the tip where it has been ever since. https://t.co/8vYskMKJKv
— Digital Startup (@digitalstartup5) January 2, 2025
Imagine how many more bitcoins may have been lost in this way. This topic will need to be clarified before all 21 million bitcoins are issued.
What Trends Can Impact the Price of Bitcoin in 2025?
Some years bitcoin returns have been eye watering. On occasion, like in 2018 or 2022 investors have taken rather large losses too. But, on average, the tendency is one of growth. As bitcoin matures market commentators suggested that volatility should become less of an issue. Which means that instead of the price collapsing by over 50% in a matter of weeks, like we have seen in the past, today the volatility is usually no more than 20%. Still big numbers in the grand scheme of things.
Bitcoin may have grown by over 100% for 2 years running now. But in 2022 it shrunk by sixty two percent. On this trend alone it would appear wise to err on the side of caution and forecast a 47% increase in price as maximum this year. It may go up more. It might not. We are talking averages over several years. Anyone suggesting more than 200% returns in 2025 is thinking short-term. And, if there’s one rule with bitcoin, it’s to think long term. Those returns are likely but give the digital asset the time to mature appropriately.
Today the demand is higher than the supply. There must be a correction coming somewhere. Corrections can go either way. So be cautious. Don’t invest money you don’t have. Especially into bitcoin.
Bitcoin as Part of Your Portfolio
One of the companies that has been involved with bitcoin as an investment product has been Alto in Nashville, TN. When we spoke with Eric Satz, the founder of Alto, he suggested that investors both retail and institutional, should look to have about 2% of their portfolio in digital assets.
Let’s say 50% of that 2% is bitcoin alone. Let’s work the maths. According to PwC Asset Managers alone account for $128.9 trillion dollars of assets. If we take 1% of that. That is almost $1.3 trillion and growing. Today, the total market cap of bitcoin is not quite $2 trillion. This is just one example of how demand is outstripping supply.
The Biggest Bitcoin Predictions of 2025
To summarize there is plenty of growth still left in bitcoin. It’s not too late to get involved. The question is whether predictions of $1 million per bitcoin are reliable or not. And, if they are, in what time frame.
Susie Violet Ward, a contributor to Forbes, has done much of the work here. Susie has analysed some of the market sentiment out there and has pointed out that predictions for 2025 vary from a conservative $75,000 to an ambitious $250,000. One of the companies she has quoted is Bitwise Asset Management who believe that $200,000 is achievable for bitcoin.
The more conservative numbers she has been able to confirm gives an indication of a 30% return in 2025. Can you afford to miss the boat this year? Again?
Author: Andy Samu
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
See Also:
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve! | Disruption Banking
Will President-Elect Trump Succeed in Creating a National Bitcoin Stockpile? | Disruption Banking
How Bitcoin’s 2024 Halving Could Reshape The Market For Institutional Investors | Disruption Banking
Is Bitcoin (BTC) A Safe Haven Currency? | Disruption Banking
Larry Fink: Is The BlackRock CEO Leading Bitcoin’s Charge To Wall Street? | Disruption Banking