Without AI Spending, Is the US Already in Recession?
Artificial Intelligence has a lot to answer for. In the U.S., it is reported that the AI boom accounted for more than half of the 1.6 percent growth rate over the first six months of 2025. This trend seems to be continuing. But is it masking a U.S. Recession?
We have written a lot about data centers and high performance computing this year. DisruptionBanking has interviewed several of the leading Bitcoin miners who are also seeing the value of pivoting to AI. In fact, just yesterday Microsoft reportedly signed a $9.7 billion deal with IREN, the leading Bitcoin miner. Other Big Tech firms are also developing relationships like Alphabet with Cipher Mining.
Biggest AI Winners
Arguably Bitcoin miners will be one of the winners in the AI race. But there are many other firms in the space too. Just consider the AI5 which we wrote about, these are TSMC, AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft. We checked TradingView to see what these firms and other AI companies’ performances have been like since the beginning of 2025, here are the results:
Nvidia has grown by 48.43 percent
Microsoft has grown by 21.02 percent
Alphabet has grown by 46.48 percent
Broadcom has grown by 54.41 percent
Oracle has grown by 49.27 percent
Palantir has grown by 152.79 percent
AMD has grown by 109.2 percent
Intel has grown by 86.31 percent
TSMC has grown by 40.65 percent
The above list is not comprehensive, but it gives a good indication of where the money is. Amazingly, technicals on most of the companies are a ‘Strong Buy’, just AMD and Oracle are a ‘Buy’, whilst Palantir is a ‘Neutral’ as of today. This is despite tariffs announced on Liberation Day as well as numerous supply chain challenges and plenty of uncertainty on global markets.
Dow Jones 2025 Performance
Some of the AI companies are listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But not all companies in the Dow have performed well in 2025 so far.
Caterpillar is up over 50 percent
Goldman Sachs and IBM are up over 35 percent
JP Morgan and Johnson & Johnson are up over 28 percent
Cisco and 3M are up over 20 percent
Walmart, Amgen and Travelers are up over 13 percent
Only Boeing and Coca-Cola have grown by more than 10 percent. The rest have had a less spectacular 2025 so far.
Biggest Losers
Home Depot is down 3 percent
Merck is down 15.83 percent
Salesforce is down 23.79 percent
UnitedHealth is down 34.2 percent
Hidden Weakness in the Dow
This uneven performance within the Dow Jones Industrial Average underscores a deeper fracture in the US economy. While AI-adjacent giants like Microsoft (up 21% YTD, per TradingView data) and IBM (up 35%) ride the wave of data center expansions, traditional sectors are faltering. Healthcare heavyweights UnitedHealth and Merck have shed 34% and 16% respectively, battered by rising insurance costs and drug pricing pressures amid sticky inflation at 2.7% (IMF estimates). Consumer staples like Coca-Cola (up just 10%) and Walmart (13%) reflect a “tale of two cities,” as ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman recently put it:
“The U.S. GDP in 2024 was $29.18 trillion, estimated to grow by 1.8% in 2025,” Eisman said. “That 1.8% growth is worth about $530 billion. But if you were to factor in the AI infrastructure spending by Magnificent Seven companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, it would total about $400 billion,” by Eisman’s calculations, “meaning if you were to subtract that sum from the projected growth of U.S. GDP, it would amount to very little.”
The AI frenzy isn’t just inflating stocks, it’s the economy’s lone lifeline. In H1 2025, IT investments (data centers, chips) drove all GDP growth.
Eisman warns that erasing AI capex leaves 2025 growth under 0.5%, exposing a struggling consumer where spending feels recessionary despite aggregates.
DisruptionBanking’s Take: Beyond the Hype
The AI race has minted winners like Nvidia with its 48% surge, and AMD’s 109%. But at what cost to the broader economy?
As the Dow’s cracks widen, one truth emerges: America’s “one big bet on AI” is high-stakes poker. Will it pay off, or fold into recession? Stay tuned to DisruptionBanking for the next hand.
Author: Andy Samu
#DowJones #MagnificentSeven #AIFive #BigTech #LargeCap #DataCenter #ArtificialIntelligence
Stock prices and technicals are taken from leading trading platform TradingView.
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
See Also:
Why Riot Platforms is Focusing on Data Centers, and not just Bitcoin | Disruption Banking
Making America the Bitcoin Superpower: Inside the Bitcoin Lobby’s D.C. Takeover | Disruption Banking
