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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently published its latest forecast for the UK economy. In the Committee’s central projection, aggregate economic activity (as measured by real GDP) is projected to fall slightly over the coming quarters, as high energy prices and the path of market interest rates continue to weigh on spending in an environment of weak potential growth.
The latest release of data for the UK consumer price index showed an annual increase of 10.1% in January. It is down from a peak of 11.1% in October, not least because direct effects from energy prices have eased. But also, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the consumer price index, fell more than expected to 5.8% in January.

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