The beginning of 2026 has seen a lot of disruption in global markets. A trend that has continued from 2025. Nearly every sector of the global economy has felt some disruption, especially in precious metals, and more recently tech stocks. To help navigate the market many financial institutions are shifting from proof-of-concept AI projects to production-ready intelligence. Others are looking for external partnerships to address the uncertainty.
Since we spoke to Wilson Chan, Founder and CEO of market intelligence provider Permutable AI in December 2025, the market has experienced significant disruption. Market behavior continues to be hard to predict, and trading habits are having to adapt. In response, Permutable AI, has rolled out new products to help hedge funds, banks, and commodity trading desks navigate this volatility
Last week the AI startup launched its country-level macro signals data feeds. Importantly, Permutable AI uses a dual-lens approach which includes domestic and international sentiment.
Domestic sentiment – local language reporting that captures street-level issues, implementation friction, consumer stress, and political dynamics
International sentiment – global institutional narratives, geopolitical framing, and cross-border risk perception
This isn’t just more data; it’s about spotting divergences early. Where local reality clashes with offshore narratives, these are often the richest alpha spots.
We caught up with Wilson Chan again to dig into how narrative intelligence is evolving in this environment, why it’s outperforming traditional sentiment tools, and what it means for hedge funds, banks, and trading desks right now.
Geopolitics Sparks Tension Fade
Although 2025 was the best year for hedge funds since 2009 overall, not all hedge funds did well. Geopolitics dominated market sentiment coupled with a difficult year for traditional macro giants, which all added up. Some hedge funds struggled to produce a good return.
We started discussions by addressing how geopolitics affects market sentiment. Wilson shared how geopolitics adds large premiums to assets like crude oil. 2025 was another challenging year for oil as the price per barrel suffered a net decline. Sentiment around Venezuela and Iran may have had some effect on prices, but they were largely insignificant as oversupply dominated the market in 2025.
Investors shun long positions in oil. Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) department published in January how “we expect oil prices will decline in 2026.”
Wilson added how there are constant ‘disruption events,’ that can change the price of oil, even though the general sentiment is ‘sell.’ Sometimes the narrative around these events can be very loud. They can build up over time, affecting short-term prices.
“What is interesting,” he shared. “Is how people realize that the tension behind the story isn’t as strong as it first appeared.”
Wilson pointed to how a geopolitical event like Trump’s advisors meeting Iranian government representatives ends a particular narrative. He showed how the media just stops talking about the topic following on from the meeting and talks.
“If the news stops covering it [the story],” Wilson explained. “You usually get a drop in crude oil prices, and that’s called tension fade. It’s when the tension fades off, when people stop talking about a particular trend.” He added how the same applies to gold when people stop talking about certain global events.
“Media can drive volume in a certain direction in the market,” Wilson continued. “But also lack of volume can affect the market as well. When the volume comes down you can see prices of certain assets coming down as well.”
Core Narrative Drivers
Permutable AI’s market intelligence platform generates news-driven signals that are validated across geopolitical, macroeconomic, policy, logistics, and market data. The startup processes 250,000 sources daily across 37 languages. The company’s AI system generates news signals by correlating information across markets, regions and datasets.
We discussed how this applied in the case of gold and silver. Wilson shared how Permutable AI is producing an outlook on gold and silver every hour. The team has invested significant effort into processing a vast volume of global news articles to capture a true feel of market sentiment, and crucially, to identify the narratives driving price action.
“If everything is aligned, we assign the highest score,” Wilson shared. This applies when the market sentiment is bullish, like it was in the case of gold and silver until recently. However, the same scoring logic applies to other aligned macro signals. For example, a sustained weakening of the US dollar would also generate the highest possible score within the model.
In the case of gold and silver, Wilson is no longer seeing a strong signal. The sentiment is much more prudent than it was in the past. And, he believes, it will take high conviction on the fundamental macro for things to improve to where they were.
“We analyse all relevant online stories and score them accordingly,” Wilson explained. “When narratives align, conviction is high. When they conflict, we move to a more neutral stance.” He explained how In precious metals at the time of our interview, that divergence has brought the score down to roughly 60%.
AI Shifts Metals Sentiment
Permutable AI uses predominantly media reports and articles when analyzing market sentiment. Social media is only used on occasion, to follow official accounts on X, for instance. We continued our discussion about precious metals and Wilson shared further details about how “our market sentiment indicators have been telling us that there is now new industrial strength on sentiment across these metals.”
The team at Permutable AI started seeing this sentiment early in 2025. Wilson shared how the story had been picked up by the media in the last two quarters of 2025. “It’s the big fundamental push for commodities,” he explained. “It’s been linked to the building of AI data centers.”
“The concern here is,” Wilson added. “If the AI bubble was to burst, then we may see a collapse in the fundamentals for precious metals. A lot depends on whether AI is really going to change the world and whether countries are really going to invest in these multi-billion-dollar data centers.”
Nonstop Oil Trading Demands
Having explored the topic of precious metals, we returned to oil prices. Wilson shared how it is likely that a lot of people lost money trading oil in 2025. “It’s a really difficult market to trade,” he explained.
“There is a collision of long term versus short term drivers,” Wilson emphasized. “They change almost daily. As an oil trader you can only sit at your desk for maybe 8 to 10 hours. This is no longer enough. Outside of those 8 to 10 hours the market can move. Importantly, it can move against you.
“Traders must constantly assess how long geopolitical tensions are likely to persist – or reposition quickly if those tensions dissipate altogether. Either scenario presents significant complexity.“
Wilson argues that success in this environment requires a systematic, intraday approach. “You need to respond to the market in real time,” he explained. “The market moves around the clock. You can’t simply close your screen at 6pm and expect your positions to look after themselves.”
Hunting Sticky Narratives
“What’s profitable for traders,” Wilson continued, “is if they can find a good narrative. One that lasts for a few months and where you believe that narrative is going to stick. Then you can make money.”
If the narrative doesn’t stick, that is when it becomes difficult for a person to trade. Last year the algorithms probably struggled with the sheer number of new regimes, new political strategies, new economic policies. It’s here where Permutable AI can make a real difference.
In moments when oil is trading in negative territory, like it did in April 2020, it is clear for traders that the narrative will last. That the long-term returns are more predictable.
In 2026, incessant regime shifts, from geopolitics to AI-driven demand, make sticky narratives rarer than ever. When media hype fades fast (as we’ve seen with recent US-Iran talks easing oil premiums), traditional tools lag.
Permutable AI changes that by surfacing divergences in real time, giving hedge funds, banks, and traders the edge to hunt conviction before the crowd. In uncertain times, the right narrative intelligence isn’t optional, it is essential. Ready to track fading tensions and emerging alpha?
Author: Andy Samu
See Also:
Permutable AI: Turning Global Perception into Real-Time Edge | Disruption Banking
