Gold and silver prices just spiked hard. US and Israeli strikes hammered Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. NYT live updates report Iran fired back with missiles and drones across the region. Investors rushed into precious metals as safe-haven plays. Gold hit intraday highs near $5,420 per ounce today, March 2. CNBC reports Silver jumped to $96 before pulling back sharply.
The Economic Times volatility note explains that this is no random move. Geopolitical shocks like this have driven bullion for decades. But with oil surging and the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the rally comes with real risks.
The Strikes Igniting the Rally: Khamenei Killed, Conflict Expands
Strikes began early Saturday, February 28. US and Israeli forces hit over 2,000 targets inside Iran: missile sites, navy bases, and the Natanz nuclear facility. Understanding War’s special report details the Iranian Red Crescent reports over 555 dead.
Al Jazeera casualty report confirms Khamenei was killed on day one. CNN confirms Iran retaliated fast. Missiles struck Israel (11 dead), Lebanon (31 dead), and Gulf states including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. AP News live reports that four US service members died. Qatar shot down Iranian bombers. Reports indicate three US jets went down in friendly fire over Kuwait. Hezbollah joined in from Lebanon.
Naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of global oil, stopped cold. Oil prices jumped 8-13%. Online reports indicate that natural gas spiked nearly 50%.
President Trump told reporters the “big one” is coming soon and the campaign could last four to five weeks. NYT live updates report U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called it “not Iraq, not endless.” But more US forces are heading to the Middle East right now. No one rules out ground troops.
Gold Breaks $5,400: Safe-Haven Rush on War Fears
Spot gold closed around $5,248 on Friday. By Monday morning it tested $5,419.60. Bloomberg reports as of mid-day March 2, it trades near $5,305-$5,338, still up 2-3% on the session and 85% higher than a year ago.
Fortune reports futures hit $5,393. This is the biggest one-day open gap since late 2025. Why? Pure fear. Investors dump stocks and buy gold when bombs fly. Central banks already bought 863 tonnes in 2025 and keep buying more. A stronger dollar and higher yields tried to cap it, but geopolitics won today.
Silver Spikes to $96 Then Crashes 7%: Volatility Hits Hard
Silver exploded too, briefly topping $96.40, then crashed as much as 7% intraday to the high $87s before recovering toward $88-$94. Economic Times details Spot sits around $88-$93 now, still volatile. Silver is half investment metal, half industrial (solar panels, EVs, electronics).
War fears boost the investment side. But oil shocks and stock selloffs raise recession worries, which hurt industrial demand. That’s why silver swings harder than gold. The gold-silver ratio compressed to near 57, a sign that silver can lead in strong bull phases.
Why It Matters Now: Oil Spike, Inflation Threat, Supply Chain Chaos
The Hormuz shutdown is the real threat. If it drags, energy prices stay high and inflation roars back. That’s rocket fuel for gold.
Stocks fell hard, S&P 500 down over 1%, airlines hit 5-6%. Airlines grounded flights across the Gulf. This isn’t abstract. Real supply chains break when tankers can’t move.
Expert Takes: No Sugarcoating the Outlook
Reuters expert roundup reports Fawad Razaqzada at City Index sees gold pushing to $5,500 or new records on extra haven demand. “There will be extra haven demand for gold which could see prices rise to around $5,500 again, and possibly a new record high above January’s peak of around $5,600,” he said.
Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank expects fresh highs given recent momentum. Edward Meir at Marex warns of a quick $200 spike then drift lower if oil flows stabilize: “I think you’re going to see a knee-jerk spike up in most commodity markets, including gold and oil… I think we could open up by about $200/ounce on gold but then drift lower over the course of the day.”
Tai Wong, independent trader, says any selloff on “the fact” will find buyers fast: “I think gold and silver could sell off ‘on the fact’ on the open but any significant sell off will find buyers because the picture in Iran won’t be clear until weeks or months.”
JPMorgan analysts flagged a 5-10% risk premium jump even before today’s moves and still eye $6,300+ longer term. On silver, Metals Focus notes 2026 could see new highs but thrifting in the industry may cap gains later.
Most analysts are skeptical of straight-line rallies. Markets price in quick wins. If Trump’s four-to-five-week timeline holds and Iran’s regime cracks without closing Hormuz for good, we could see a sharp pullback. But the structural bull case, de-dollarization, central bank buying, and endless deficits, stay intact. This war just accelerated it.
What’s Ahead: Short-Term Chop, 2026 Bull Targets
Short term: Expect chop. Gold likely holds above $5,200 even on de-escalation news. Silver stays the wild card, bigger upside if industrial demand holds, bigger drops if recession fears spike.
Longer term: JPMorgan still targets $5,000-$6,300 by end-2026. Bank of America called for $5,000 gold pre-war. Silver forecasts range wildly from $49 to $130 depending on whom you ask, but most cluster near the $90-$100 average.
Bottom line: If the conflict stretches into April or drags Gulf oil offline, add 10-20% to these metals fast. If it ends quickly, one might take profits on spikes.
This isn’t financial advice. But the data is clear. Geopolitical chaos favours hard assets. Gold proved it again today. Silver showed its potential and then reminded everyone that it often has bad days.
Watch Hormuz, watch Trump’s next speech. Volatility is here to stay in 2026.
Author: Ayanfe Fakunle
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
See Also:
The Great Silver Crash 2026 and the Alleged Paper Reset | Disruption Banking
Silver Price Surges as Precious Metals Become Scarcer and Market Crash Looms | Disruption Banking
