Silver’s adjustment is no longer theoretical, it is already showing up in exchange data. The Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX) registered inventories, the market’s most important gauge of readily deliverable metal, have plunged from roughly 346 million ounces in 2020 to recently around 88 million ounces (hitting all-time lows in February 2026), a drawdown of roughly 75% over five years.
That collapse is not just statistical noise. According to COMEX warehouse classifications, the registered category (the metal actually available for delivery against futures contracts) has steadily tightened even as paper trading volumes remain robust.
Felix and Friends at Goat Academy flag the same stress point bluntly in their YouTube video. In their recent market analysis, they note:
“Total COMEX silver stock has fallen to about 82 million ounces… it’s 75% lower than it was in 2020. So, they’re literally running out of silver.”
The phrasing is dramatic, but the directional trend is real. In raw terms, more than 260 million ounces have effectively disappeared from the deliverable pool since the pandemic era peak.
800M oz Cumulative Deficit + Mexico Cartel Chaos: Supply Risks Escalate
The deeper issue is flow, not just stock. The silver market has now logged multiple consecutive annual deficits.
Industry estimates show the market has been in deficit since 2021, with cumulative shortfalls approaching the scale of a full year of mine supply.
Felix and Friends frame it this way:
“The silver market is really running a supply deficit… the total deficit over those years is something like 800 million ounces, which is pretty much the entire year of global production just missing basically.”
That figure aligns broadly with independent industry modelling, even if precise totals vary by methodology. The key point is persistence: deficits have become structural.
Further compounding these pressures is heavy reliance on Mexico, the world’s largest silver producer. With output of approximately 202.5 million ounces (6,300 metric tons) in 2025, roughly one-quarter of global mine production (Silver Institute/CEIC data), the stability of supply now faces heightened risks.
According to a CNN report, the recent killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho” (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes) by Mexican security forces on Sunday, February 22, has triggered widespread retaliatory violence across multiple states, including regions with significant silver mining operations, thereby adding potential jurisdictional risk to an already tight market. These supply-side vulnerabilities make the downstream inventory situation even more precarious.
December Delivery Surge: 47M oz Claimed in Just Four Days
The stress showed up vividly in late-2025 delivery data. COMEX reported roughly 47–48 million ounces standing for delivery in the opening days of the December contract cycle, an unusually large front-loaded demand burst relative to historical norms. By contrast, December deliveries had historically been only ~10–20M oz.
Highlighting the scale, “In December 47 million ounces were claimed for delivery in four trading days, which is like 60% of all the silver inventory,” Felix and Friends noted.
Even allowing for rounding and category nuances, the episode underscored a key shift: more participants are choosing metal over paper settlement.
At the same time, significant volumes have migrated into the “eligible” category (privately held metal inside COMEX vaults but not available for delivery), effectively tightening the float further.
Industrial Demand Surge + Physical vs. Paper Divide: The Market Runs Dry
What is driving the squeeze is not investor panic. The root causes are clear. For one, industrial gravity.
Rapid growth in industrial and technology demand has swamped the thin market.
Silver’s unique electrical properties make it indispensable for solar panels, electric vehicles, 5G, and AI data centers. The U.S. government now even lists silver as a critical mineral for strategic industries.
Annual industrial demand for silver now pushes past 650–700 million ounces, the dominant slice of total consumption that, together with other uses, consistently outruns the mined supply of roughly 820 million ounces per year. Most of this must come from inventory or recycling. Historically, manufacturers kept comfortable buffers (around 120 days of supply), but today most companies only hold 30–45 days’ worth of silver on hand.
Put simply, shortages in factories translate swiftly into surging delivery demand.
- 800M oz – five-year silver supply deficit (2021–25).
- 82M oz – current COMEX registered silver (all-time low).
- ≈650–700M oz – annual industrial silver demand (solar, electronics, EVs).
- 46.6M oz – delivered on COMEX in the first four days of Dec 2025 (≃50 % of stock).
- 30–45 days – today’s silver inventory cover for industrial users (down from ~120 days).
Such figures paint a stark picture: paper silver may be plentiful, but physical silver is not.
Felix and Friends capture the emerging market psychology, thus, “Precious metals are getting scarce. The paper market says one thing… but physical silver is getting less and less and less.”
And the strategic implication? “In the end, I believe physical silver will actually win… central banks, they’re not buying paper… they’re buying physical stuff.”
That may overstate the immediacy, but the directional tension is real. If industrial demand keeps tightening inventories while futures liquidity stays abundant, the silver market could face periodic delivery squeezes rather than a single dramatic break.
For now, the disruption signal is clear: in silver, the plumbing is getting tighter even while the screens still look calm.
Author: Ayanfe Fakunle
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
See Also:
From $30 to $117: Silver’s Epic Surge | Disruption Banking
The Great Silver Crash 2026 and the Alleged Paper Reset | Disruption Banking
