Brevan Howard’s flagship Master Fund eked out only a +0.8% gain in 2025 (Alpha Strategies +8.0%), far below the double-digit surges of its peers. By comparison, Bridgewater’s flagship Pure Alpha posted about +33% in 2025, and Discovery Capital’s macro fund about +36%. Even smaller peers like Rokos (21%) and D.E. Shaw’s macro arm (~28%) crushed Brevan’s results. It might come as a surprise, but Brevan Howard dramatically underperformed the macro boom.
$543B Macro Record But Brevan Still Missed Out
2025 was a banner year for macro traders. A Bloomberg survey found the hedge-fund industry as a whole generated an estimated $543 billion in gains, an all-time record. Sir Chris Hohn’s TCI Fund Management clinched $18.9 billion of that total sum. Other iconic managers rode huge market moves, and posted outsized returns. This surge was driven by unprecedented volatility, ongoing wars, fraying supply chains, aggressive Fed policy changes and even political shocks like President Donald Trump’s renewed tariffs and brinkmanship. In short, the macro menu was rich.
Yet Brevan Howard missed out on much of this feast. Its poor performance signals fundamental strategic gaps.
In January 2025 alone Brevan’s Master Fund tumbled 2.93% as interest-rate uncertainty and FX trades backfired, erasing most of its prior year’s gains. In other words, Brevan’s traders seem to have bet the wrong way on key market moves. Meanwhile, competitors’ strategies, from Bridgewater’s aggressive duration bets to Discovery’s deep value calls, capitalized on the tumult.
Brevan Closes Golchin’s $1.4B Fund for Flagship Focus
Brevan Howard’s weak 2025 results are already driving internal change. Bloomberg recently reported the firm will shut the $1.4 billion Brevan Howard FG Fund run by Fash Golchin, which will cease running external capital by end-June 2026.
Golchin, who launched the fund in 2018 and delivered 17.7% in 2025 with roughly 9.9% annualized returns since inception, will move to run capital inside Brevan’s Master Fund.
The decision signals a strategic shift toward concentrating talent and risk in the flagship, an acknowledgment that Brevan is trying to lift its core fund’s performance, even if it means closing a successful standalone strategy.
Rigid Playbook in a Volatile Year
The factor mix is clear. Extreme events in 2025 created strong trends in rates, commodities and currencies. But Brevan’s playbook, long a conservative macro model, proved less nimble. Its Master and Alpha funds focus heavily on interest rates and FX swaps, and Reuters reported that the currency-trade losses early in the year were a drain on returns.
Bloomberg analysts noted that Brevan’s similar big loss in 2024 came largely from “wagers on currency volatility” that went wrong. This seems to have played out again early in 2025 as the dollar nosedived by over 9%, per a recent Disruption Banking report.
By contrast, Brevan’s small Emerging Markets fund, which could flexibly capture local currency rallies and commodity moves, delivered double-digit gains. The net result: in a market where most macro managers earned double-digit profits, Brevan Howard’s main funds barely kept pace with inflation.
$34B AUM Holds Strong Amid Lagging Returns
Brevan Howard remains a giant in size: roughly $33–34 billion under management including its main flagship strategies plus newer vehicles. The firm’s AUM is up sharply from lows of $6 billion in 2018, thanks partly to expanding into the Middle East. In August 2025, Abu Dhabi investor Lunate (linked to sovereign wealth fund ADQ) injected $2 billion into Brevan, taking a stake and funding new Gulf-domiciled funds. Lunate’s backing signals confidence in Brevan’s future. The $34 billion figure (cited in a Lunate press release) dwarfs many peers and underscores that Brevan is far from a shrinking shop.
However, the sharp contrast between AUM and performance is notable. High assets can dilute returns, but Brevan’s lagging yields likely shave its fees and partner profits. In fact, leaked accounts show profits to Brevan partners plummeted ~20% for the fiscal year ended March 2025, reflecting the master fund’s sluggishness.
By comparison, Bridgewater’s fee pool exploded 33%. That internal squeeze hints at pressure on Brevan’s business model, prompting cost cuts (staff layoffs reported in early 2025) and a reevaluation of its strategy.
Digital Pivot Beyond Traditional Macro
Brevan Howard no longer views itself as a pure rates/currency trader. Founder Alan Howard shared at a conference that the firm is evolving into a broader alternative manager, especially in digital assets. Indeed, Brevan has a dedicated crypto unit, Brevan Howard Digital, which manages billions in cryptocurrency and blockchain-related investments. Even if not fully reflected in 2025 hedge returns, this digital focus is a key initiative. For example, Brevan is reported to hold one of the largest Bitcoin ETF stakes in the industry and its crypto strategy surged when Bitcoin rocketed past $100K.
The strategic bet is that digital assets (crypto, DeFi, NFTs, blockchain infrastructures) will reshape finance. Brevan’s Abu Dhabi collaboration specifically mentioned “digital assets” in its planned fund lineup. And a top compliance executive recently noted that Brevan’s UAE office has been trading crypto under progressive local rules.
Clearly, Brevan is diversifying. This digital push could pay off if, say, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile and institutional flows into crypto accelerate. But it also highlights the irony of the moment: as certain assets soared in 2025, Brevan’s legacy macro funds did not.
2026: Adaptation or Continued Lag
Looking forward, Brevan Howard faces both opportunity and reckoning. The macro backdrop in 2026 is unlikely to calm. More geopolitical flashpoints are already emerging. Traders expect continued central bank pivoting and election uncertainty, which means volatility will remain high. Such an environment should suit macro funds in general.
A hedge fund data and analysis group, Hedge Fund Research, estimates the hedge-fund industry could record another strong year. But Brevan must prove it can adapt. Its middling result in 2025 suggests that merely sitting tight on old strategies isn’t enough. Unless Brevan significantly recalibrates, sharpening risk models, reallocating to winners (like emerging markets or commodities) and scaling its digital franchises, it risks losing market share.
That said, several factors bode well for Brevan Howard’s long-run outlook. Its large asset base gives it heft, and Lunate’s partnership should provide fresh capital to deploy. Management has publicly committed to the Middle East region (leasing more space in ADGM). And the regulatory spotlight on digital assets could play into Brevan’s hands; as a leading trader in crypto ETFs and stablecoins, it is positioned to benefit from flows into the space.
In conclusion, Brevan Howard’s 2025 performance was disappointing relative to the macro rally. Its modest returns (Master <1%) underscore missed opportunities and underline the need for change. The firm’s size and capital partnerships give it resources, but management must address strategic blind spots. The year 2026 and beyond will test whether Brevan can leverage its digital initiatives and global reach to catch up, or if its peers will continue to leave it in the dust.
Author: Richardson Chinonyerem
The editorial team at #DisruptionBanking has taken all precautions to ensure that no persons or organizations have been adversely affected or offered any sort of financial advice in this article. This article is most definitely not financial advice.
See Also:
How Brevan Howard’s Flagship Fund Stopped Making Big Returns | Disruption Banking
Brevan Howard Digital Boss Isn’t Coming Back, say Insiders | Disruption Banking
