London, UK – 30 September 2025: China’s economy looks set to hit its 5% GDP growth target again in 2025, but new analysis from data provider Permutable reveals the outlook is far more fragile than the official numbers suggest.
According to Permutable’s China Macro Sentiment Indices, which measure confidence across households, firms, and investors, key sectors remain under strain:
- Property market downturn: Real estate investment has fallen -11% y-o-y, with new starts and completions both sharply down. Residential sentiment has stayed negative since early 2024.
- Manufacturing resilience masks fragility: Output rose 5.7% y-o-y in August, yet investor sentiment continues to weaken, reflecting overcapacity, tariff risks, and reliance on subsidies.
- Weak household demand: Retail sales are being propped up by subsidies and trade-in schemes, but households remain cautious, limiting prospects for a consumption-led recovery.
- Exports under pressure: US imports of Chinese goods slumped -33% in August, with rerouting options narrowing.
Wilson Chan, CEO of Permutable, commented: “On paper, China’s growth trajectory looks resilient. But our sentiment indices reveal persistent fragility beneath the surface – households lack confidence, property remains in decline, and manufacturing strength is increasingly dependent on state support. Stability is being delivered, but the quality of growth is in question.”
Jack Watson, Analyst at Permutable, added: “Sentiment data shows that there is scepticism about the sustainability of China’s growth story. Until property stabilises and domestic demand strengthens, the underlying picture will remain one of strain.”
Permutable’s analysis highlights how sentiment can act as an early warning system, capturing cracks in confidence before official data reflects them. For institutional investors and global trade partners, this offers a clearer read on China’s growth outlook in 2025 – and the risks ahead.
About Permutable
Permutable is a UK-based market sentiment and macroeconomic data provider. Its proprietary sentiment indices track markets, commodities, and economies in real time, giving global institutions, asset managers, and policymakers actionable intelligence via API.
